Welcome to Grand National Trends!
The purpose of this website is simple – to provide a fresh way of looking at the Grand National, and use proven statistics to help you find a winner.
The next edition of the Grand National will be held on Saturday April 4th 2020. It’s the one day of the year when the nation ‘goes racing’ and holds its’ breath to watch forty magnificent horses racing over the famous Aintree fences.
When it comes to Grand National betting, people have all manner of systems they use. Perhaps you choose a name you like, or pick a horse with your lucky number. Maybe you like the colours, draw a horse in the office sweepstake or even stick a pin in the paper!
For many people, the Grand National is their only bet of the year, and it’s seen as something of a lottery. I hope this website demonstrates that there is a method to picking a Grand National winner that goes well beyond the element of chance.
By analysing the career performance statistics of past runners, and applying specific trends based on STAMINA, FORM, WEIGHT and a few others to this years’ runners, we can identify the horses that fit the profile of a typical Grand National winner.
The National has changed quite a lot over the past decade which made this process a bit like hitting a moving target for a few years. The latest changes came in 2013, when the race distance was shortened and a new softer core fencing was introduced to improve safety. These modifications have thankfully worked, but they have also undoubtedly lessened the race as a test of pure jumping ability, putting even more emphasis on our and out staying power.
These shifting trends led to a few lean years from 2014-2016, but we have come back strongly over the past two years as a new set of emerging trends have become clearer with each edition of the race.
So how does this website work?
Well every year I publish posts based on the qualities I look for in a National winner, namely Stamina, Form, Weight, Experience and Preparation.
Each post will summarise key career performance trends that support my conclusions, based on analysis of all 276 runners to have participated in the National since the aforementioned modifications were introduced in 2013.
Then I apply these trends to reject most of the field and shortlist horses that match the profile of a typical National winner.
From this shortlist I will normally tip 4-5 horses.
Since 2006 I’ve tipped 65 horses in all, including 4 winners and 17 horses paying an each-way return*.
- 2006 – 1st & 2nd, Numbersixvalverde & Hedgehunter
- 2007 – 2nd McKelvey
- 2008 – 1st & 3rd, Comply or Die & Snowy Morning
- 2009 – 4th State Of Play
- 2010 – 4th, 5th & 6th, Big Fella Thanks, Hello Bud & Snowy Morning
- 2011 – 1st & 2nd, Ballabriggs & Oscar Time
- 2012 – 4th Cappa Bleu
- 2013 – 2nd Cappa Bleu, 3rd Teaforthree
- 2016 – 5th Goonyella
- 2017 – 3rd Saint Are, 6th Vieux Lion Rouge
- 2018 – 1st Tiger Roll
- 2019 – 4th Walk The Mill
*Top five finish in line with most online bookies each-way terms
Putting some statistics to the above, I have a 29% success rate in tipping a winner, and a ‘place’ rate of 26% over fourteen years of doing this.
More importantly, the shortlist of (typically around 10) trend hitters has been pretty effective over the past three years.
In 2017, I managed to shortlist six of the first seven home, missing the winner One For Arthur on one arbitrary pointer (since removed from my analysis).
In 2018, I shortlisted horses finishing 1, 3, 5 and 7.
After two successful years, 2019 was something of a disappointment, having discarded Tiger Roll on the basis of weight (a mistake I won’t make again!). But the final list of horses hitting the trends still included two of the first four home, suggesting I wasn’t too far off the mark.
I will publish updated posts for each set of trends, complete with a detailed analysis of all runners from 2013-2019, over the coming weeks.
As we get close to the 2020 Grand National, sometime around Friday 3rd April I’ll pull all of these trends together and come up with a shortlist of potential winners.
Remember to follow my Grand National trends Facebook page for updates as and when they’re published.
Of course no system is perfect and nobody can guarantee finding a Grand National winner – it really is the most elusive horse race to pick a winner on! But I hope the hard work I put in makes for an interesting read that will enhance your understanding and enjoyment of the big race.