Welcome to Grand National Trends – a detailed guide to help you pick a winner using the power of trends and statistics!
The 2018 Grand National will be held on April 14th 2018. It’s the the highlight of the jump racing calendar, and the one day of the year when the nation stops and holds its’ breath to watch forty magnificent horses racing over the famous Aintree fences.
When it comes to Grand National betting, people have all manner of systems they use. Perhaps it’s a name they relate to, some pick a horse with a lucky number, others like the colours, some of you may just draw a horse in the office sweepstake or even stick a pin in the paper!
For many, the Grand National is their only bet of the year, and it’s seen as something of a lottery. The purpose of this website is to demonstrate that there is a method to picking a Grand National winner that goes well beyond the element of chance.
By analysing the career performance statistics of past runners, and applying specific trends found in those who succeed in the Grand National I will identify a shortlist of horses who have the common characteristics of a National winner.
These can be categorised into six qualities to look for – stamina, form, preparation, weight, class, and experience.
Sounds easy, right? Well not so!
The Grand National has changed quite a lot over the past decade the trends have shifted somewhat.
Firstly, in 2009 the top allotted weight a horse could carry was dropped by 2lbs – a move that saw 4 consecutive winners carry 11 stone or more to victory – something that had happened just once in the previous twenty years!
Then in 2013 the British Horseracing Association quite rightly introduced measures intended to make the race safer. This has (to date) achieved its’ intended objective, but as a side effect has undoubtedly lessened the race as a test of jumping ability.
These changes have made this annual search feel a bit like trying to hit a moving target, but 2017 really affirmed to me that we can rely on some very reliable trends and statistics once again that will help find a potential winner.
After compiling a shortlist of horses that match the profile of a National winner I normally tip 4-5 horses from this list every year. Since 2006 I’ve tipped 55 horses in all, including 3 winners and 15 horses paying an each-way return*.
- 2006 – 1st & 2nd, Numbersixvalverde & Hedgehunter
- 2007 – 2nd, McKelvey
- 2008 – 1st & 3rd, Comply or Die & Snowy Morning
- 2009 – 4th, State Of Play
- 2010 – 4th, 5th & 6th, Big Fella Thanks, Hello Bud & Snowy Morning
- 2011 – 1st & 2nd, Ballabriggs & Oscar Time
- 2012 – 4th, Cappa Bleu
- 2013 – 2nd Cappa Bleu, 3rd Teaforthree
- 2016 – 5th Goonyella
- 2017 – 3rd Saint Are, 6th Vieux Lion Rouge
*Top five finish in line with most online bookies each-way terms
By 2018 it will have been seven years since I’ve had a winner, but with an overall winning hit rate of 25%, and a ‘place’ rate of 27% my record is still pretty good.
And 2017 represented something of a comeback after a few lean years… My short list of 12 trend hitting contenders included horses finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th, but frustratingly missed the winner – One For Arthur – because he hadn’t run since mid-January!
For 2018, I will be taking heart from this relative success and a firm belief that a new set of emerging trends could herald a new era of success. For this reason I will be focusing my analysis on the past five editions of the race since it was shortened by approx. 300 yards and the new softer core fencing was introduced.
The pages you will see posted in the coming weeks reflect a detailed analysis on every quality we look for carried out shortly after the 2017 Grand National.
They will be updated with additional analysis of our 2018 Grand National entries once they are confirmed in the New Year.
Remember to follow my Facebook page and I will post updates in the weeks leading up to the big race providing unique, statistical based insights into all forty Grand National runners for 2018.
As we get close to the 2018 Grand National I’ll put all of these trends together and come up with a shortlist of potential winners.
Of course no system is perfect and nobody can guarantee finding a Grand National winner, but I hope the hard work I put in makes for an interesting read that will enhance your understanding and enjoyment of the big race.