With the 2017 Grand National just around the corner it’s time to blow the dust of this website, kick it back into gear and welcome you all to this years’ edition of Grand National trends!
If you have read my website before or follow my Facebook page, you will know that while the Grand National is a very tough race to predict, it isn’t quite the lottery some think it is.
Put simply, there are a number of qualities we should look for in a Grand National winner – based on their stamina, form, preparation, weight, class, and experience.
By profiling the career statistics of horses that enjoyed success in the past we can apply these trends to this years’ field and come up with a shortlist of contenders who closely share the traits of a Grand National winner.
Sounds easy, right? Well not so!
The Grand National has changed quite a lot over the past 8 years so the trends have shifted somewhat.
Firstly, in 2009 the top allotted weight a horse could carry was dropped by 2lbs – a move that saw 4 consecutive winners carry 11 stone or more to victory – something that had happened just once in the previous twenty years!
Then in 2013 the British Horseracing Association rightly introduced measures intended to make the race safer. This has (to date) achieved its’ intended objective, but as a side effect has undoubtedly lessened the race as a test of jumping ability.
This has made this annual search feel a bit like trying to hit a moving target, but I am convinced we can still rely on some reliable trends and statistics that will help us find a potential winner.
Over the last eleven years I’ve tipped 50 horses, including 3 winners and 14 horses paying an each-way return*.
- 2006 – 1st & 2nd, Numbersixvalverde & Hedgehunter
- 2007 – 2nd, McKelvey
- 2008 – 1st & 3rd, Comply or Die & Snowy Morning
- 2009 – 4th, State Of Play
- 2010 – 4th, 5th & 6th, Big Fella Thanks, Hello Bud & Snowy Morning
- 2011 – 1st & 2nd, Ballabriggs & Oscar Time
- 2012 – 4th, Cappa Bleu
- 2013 – 2nd Cappa Bleu, 3rd Teaforthree
- 2016 – 5th Goonyella
*Top five finish in line with most online bookies each-way terms
So despite a few relatively lean years in recent times I can still boast an overall hit rate of 28%, which is much better than sticking a pin in your paper!
This year I’ve re-analysed the career records of 318 horses who ran in the past eight editions of the race back to 2009, plus every single winner since 1994. In doing so I’ve been able to re-examine some long-held assumptions and shape an ever better informed approach which accounts for recent and long standing trends alike.
This website is produced ‘on the fly’ so at the time of writing some pages won’t have been updated with my analysis of this years’ field. Remember to follow my Facebook page and I will post updates in the week leading up to the race as I update web pages dedicated to provide insights on each quality complete with insights on how this affects our 2017 Grand National contenders over the coming weeks.
As we get close to April 8th I’ll put all of these trends together and come up with a shortlist of potential winners.
Let me end by saying nobody can guarantee finding a Grand National winner, but I hope the hard work I’ve put in makes for an interesting read that will enhance your enjoyment of the big race.