2016 Grand National News

The Elimination Round 2016!

Before I reach the final run-in on my 2016 Grand National preview I think it’s important to consolidate the ground work I’ve put in studying various trends and statistics on the race.

If we pick through the bones of my blogs on stamina, form, weight, experience, preparation and class we have eight key ‘eliminator’ trends that I will apply to shorten my list of potential winners.

Put simply, based on the wealth of data available from previous editions of the Grand National we can say with a degree of confidence that any horse failing to meet all of these minimum marks would need to break a quite significant trend to win.

For each trend I have used as much evidence as possible to back up my assertion with statistics either from my own research or from other sources.

1. Reject all horses with no career win over further than 3m.

43/45 winners since 1971
25/28 horses finishing 1-2-3-4 since 2009

2. Reject all horses with less than ten career starts over fences (includes PTP).

Every winner since at least 1980
28/28 horses finishing 1-2-3-4 since 2009

3. Reject all horses not aged between eight and twelve.

Every winner since 1940
28/28 horses finishing 1-2-3-4 since 2009

4. Reject all horses with no place form this season.

14/15 winners since 2001
20/28 horses finishing 1-2-3-4 since 2009 (6/8 failing this trend had placed in the previous years’ Grand National)

5. Reject all horses with no Class 1 or Class 2 career win.

Every winner since at least 1996

6. Reject all horses with no career win in a field of eleven or more.

Every winner since 2002
28/28 horses finishing 1-2-3-4 since 2009

7. Reject all horses who haven’t raced in the last 63 days.

Every winner since 1992
20/21 horses finishing 1-2-3 since 2009

8. Reject all horses who have had less than two runs this season.

Every winner since 1994
20/21 horses finishing 1-2-3 since 2009

Overlay all of the above and we can eliminate the following twenty-four horses from our starting field of forty runners. Below is my list of trends rejects along with the reason (or reasons) why they don’t make the list.

Silviniaco Conti: No career win in a field larger than 10.
Wonderful Charm: Long career win just 2m 5f, no career win in a field larger than 10, one run this season, last run 120 days ago.
Ballynagour: Long career win just 2m 5f, no place form this season
Gilgamboaa: Long career win 2m 4f, 9 starts over fences.
Rocky Creek: No place form this season
Shutthefrontdoor: 8 career starts over fences, no place form this season.
Buywise: Long career win 2m 7f, no place form this season, no run in 70 days.
Morning Assembly: Long career win 3m, 8 starts over fences.
Double Ross: Long career win 2m 5f.
Ucello Conti: Long career win 2m 5f, no class 1/2 win, no run in 79 days.
Le Reve: Long career win 3m, No career win in a field larger than 10.
Gallant Oscar: No place form this season.
Onenightinvienna: 7 years-old, 4 starts over fences, Long career win 3m.
Kruzhlin: Long career win 3m, No career win in a field larger than 9.
Rule The World: No career win over fences.
Katenko: Long career win 3m, no place form this season.
Vics Canvas: 13 years-old, no class 1/2 win, no place form this season.
Black Thunder: Long career win 3m, no place form this season.
Ballycasey: Long career win 2m 5f, no place form this season.
Hadrian’s Approach: One run this season, no place form this season.
Vieux Lion Rouge: 7 years-old, 6 starts over fences, Long career win 3m
Pendra: Long career win 3m, 9 starts over fences, no run in 112 days.
Home Farm: Long career win 3m, no place form this season.
The Romford Pele: No place form this season.

There’s a few in there I must confess being a bit nervous about – Silviniaco Conti in particular!

But by using these trends we always have to draw a line somewhere, and with sixteen contenders passing the above tests there’s still a lot of work to do before publishing my final selections tomorrow night…