If you have read my previous blog you will know that I have applied eight specific trends which have helped shape a list of horses who I think CAN win the National.
In case you haven’t, twenty-four horses failed to meet all eight of the following criteria:
1. Has a career win over further than 3m.
2. Has ten or more career starts over fences (includes PTP).
3. Is aged between eight and twelve.
4. Has been placed at least once this season.
5. Has a Class 1 or Class 2 career win.
6. Has a career win in a field of eleven or more.
7. Has raced in the last 63 days.
8. Has at least two runs this season (since August 1st).
This leaves us with a rather long short list of sixteen horses complying with the sorts of trends that are very common with a Grand National winner.
So now I’ll apply four less conclusive, but nonetheless important additional trends I have discovered through the course of my analysis.
16/21 horses finishing 1-2-3 since 2009 have placed at least once over a distance of 3.5 miles (3 miles and 4 furlongs) or further.
21/28 horses finishing 1-2-3-4 since 2009 have between 10-16 career starts over fences.
20/28 horses finishing 1-2-3-4 since 2009 have a career win in a field of 17 or more runners.
5/12 winners since 2004 have at least one previous career win at Aintree.
While each trend is not conclusive on it’s own, all twenty-eight horses who finished 1-2-3-4 in the Grand National since 2009 managed to hit AT LEAST 1 out of of four.
So let’s see how our sixteen contenders fair…
|HORSE||PLACE 3.5M+||10-16 RUNS||WON 17+||AINTREE WIN||SCORE|
|On His Own||N||N||Y||N||1/4|
|The Druids Nephew||N||Y||Y||N||2/4|
|Sir Des Champs||N||Y||Y||N||2/4|
|The Last Samuri||N||Y||N||N||1/4|
|Just A Par||Y||Y||Y||N||3/4|
So based on these findings we can readily remove Soll, Aachen and Unioniste from our shortlist given they fail to hit one single mark.
Meanwhile, let’s consider that 25/28 horses placing 1-2-3-4 in the last seven Nationals hit two or more of these trends. So with a pretty good degree of confidence we will also draw a line through First Lieutenant, O’Faolains Boy, On His Own and (maybe a little less confidently!) The Last Samuri.
Before we proceed it’s worth noting that from our list of twenty-four rejects, seven horses do hit 2+ of these marks so if you prefer to use them as your shortlist criteria you can mark up Shutthefrontdoor, Gallant Oscar, Rule The World, Vics Canvas, Hadrian’s Approach, Home Farm and The Romford Pele accordingly.
But for 2016, I’m rolling with nine remaining horses who clear all eight ‘eliminator’ trends, and also hit at least two of our softer qualifying trends as well.
These come with all associated health warnings of course – I have been wrong before! But here is my trend based shortlist for the 2016 Grand National
(prices from Skybet.com, correct at 10pm Friday night).
1. Many Clouds 8/1
9. The Druids Nephew 16/1
10. Triolo D’alene
12. Sir Des Champs 20/1
13. Holywell 16/1
17. Boston Bob 33/1
21. Goonyella 20/1
30. Just a Par 50/1
38. Saint Are 14/1
Not for the first time, I’m feeling confident with what the trends have thrown my way. We have four of the top eight in the betting, the first two home in last years National, some classy Grade 1 winners mixed with proven out and out stayers – plus it’s always nice to have some horses at big prices to consider too!
I’ll delve into these final nine contenders in my next and final pre-race blog. With rain forecast in Aintree tonight the going could have some bearing on my final selections, but for now I’ll be weighing up this shortlist, sharpening my pencil to come up with my final tips for the 2016 National first thing in the morning!