2019 Grand National trends

Rejects

OK so it’s time to sharpen my list of Grand National runners. For better or worse, I’m committing to the following trends that have served me well over the past couple of years and rejecting horses that don’t fit the profile of a National winner.

Here’s a summary of those reasons and a complete list of horses I’ve rejected on each point. You can of course refer to each blog for further explanation and statistics behind each trend.

STAMINA – Reject horses with no career place form over 3.5 miles OR a top 5 finish in a key trial.

  • Valtor
  • Outlander
  • Go Conquer
  • Mala Beach
  • Lake View Lad
  • Warriors Tale
  • Magic Of Light
  • A Toi Phil
  • Jury Duty
  • Noble Endeavor
  • Monbeg Notorious
  • Tea For Two
  • Blow By Blow
  • Up For Review
  • Singlefarmpayment
  • Valseur Lido
  • Livelovelaugh
  • Captain Redbeard

WEIGHT – Reject horses carrying 11 stone 1 lbs or more (More than 12 lbs extra weight than #40 – bottom horse in the handicap).

  • Anibale Fly
  • Valtor
  • Tiger Roll
  • Outlander
  • Don Poli
  • Go Conquer
  • Mala Beach
  • Minella Rocco
  • Lake View Lad
  • Pleasant Company
  • Ballyoptic

FORM – Reject horses that have paid no each-way returns this season

  • Outlander
  • Don Poli
  • Minella Rocco
  • Pleasant Company
  • Ballyoptic
  • One For Arthur
  • A Toi Phil
  • Noble Endeavor
  • Monbeg Notorious
  • Step Back
  • Valseur Lido
  • Bless The Wings
  • Just A Par

OTHER TRENDS – Reject horses failing 2 or more out of six trends (long win, age, experience, class win, season runs, days rest).

  • Step Back
  • Blow By Blow
  • Up For Review
  • Livelovelaugh

Every year when I finalise this list there’s always one or two I personally wish had made it, and of course this years shortlist will not feature last years winner and red hot favourite Tiger Roll. There’s no doubting his chances, but according to the trends, he’s carrying too much weight to win… time will tell if I’m right or whether Tiger Roll takes on legendary status by repeating his 2018 triumph.

Anibale Fly also misses out on the shortlist, Jury Duty is another who is well fancied and I’m a bit disappointed that Valseur Lido misses out. 8th last year and with 12 lbs less to carry he might be a good value each-way bet.

But anyhow, I’m afraid the trends say no!

We’re left with a shortlist of 12 horses who tick all the boxes we normally find in our Grand National winner. You can probably work out who they are, but I’ll be back later today for the big reveal and to share my personal selections for the National.