2018 Grand National trends

Rejects

OK so it’s time to sharpen my list of Grand National runners. For better or worse, I’m committing to the following trends and rejecting horses that don’t fit the profile of a National winner.

Here’s a summary of those reasons and a complete list of horses I’ve rejected on each point.

STAMINA – Reject horses with no career place form over 3.5 miles OR a top 5 finish in a key trial.

  • VALSEUR LIDO
  • ALPHA DES OBEAUX
  • PERFECT CANDIDATE
  • SHANTOU FLYER
  • TENOR NIVERNAIS
  • CARLINGFORD LOUGH
  • WARRIORS TALE
  • THE DUTCHMAN
  • PLEASANT COMPANY
  • VIRGILO
  • MAGGIO
  • PENDRA
  • BUYWISE
  • CHILDRENS LIST
  • CAPTAIN REDBEARD
  • WALK IN THE MILL

WEIGHT – Reject horses carrying 11 stone 3 lbs or more (More than 12 lbs extra weight than #40 – bottom horse in the handicap).

  • BLAKLION
  • ANIBALE FLY
  • THE LAST SAMURI
  • VALSEUR LIDO
  • TOTAL RECALL
  • ALPHA DES OBEAUX

FORM – Reject horses that have paid no each-way returns this season

  • VALSEUR LIDO
  • TENOR NIVERNAIS
  • CARLINGFORD LOUGH
  • VIEUX LION ROUGE
  • SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
  • PLEASANT COMPANY
  • SAINT ARE
  • VIRGILIO
  • MAGGIO
  • PENDRA
  • CHILDRENS LIST
  • LORD WINDERMERE
  • ROAD TO RICHES
  • THUNDER AND ROSES*

OTHER TRENDS – Reject horses failing 2 or more out of six trends (long win, age, experience, class win, season runs, days rest).

  • ALPHA DES OBEAUX
  • SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT
  • PLEASANT COMPANY
  • UCELLO CONTI
  • RAZ DE MAREE
  • VIRGILIO
  • CHILDRENS LIST
  • CAPTAIN REDBEARD
  • LORD WINDERMERE

You will probably see a good few horses rejected who are at the top of the market here, so there’s always a bit of trepidation as I make yet another leap of (data based) faith! There are 28 horses listed above who miss at least one important mark, leaving 12 who will make it on to my trends shortlist for 2018. Look out for that, along with my personal picks for the big race on Friday night.