A Fresh Look At A Great Old Race

Welcome to Grand National Trends; a website set up with the objective of cracking the puzzle of who will win the National Hunt season’s flagship race using the power of statistics!

Firstly, a bit about me. My name is Neil Baker and I got the bug for national hunt racing and the National rather late in life after joining the totesport’s marketing team in 2004.

Over the next seven years my appreciation and affection for horse racing and the industry grew, and as something of a stats boffin I took a particular interest in solving an utterly fascinating puzzle.

You see the Grand National isn’t the lottery most people think it is, and there are a number of very reliable trends that offer great clues in picking a winner, or at least in whittling down the 40 runners into a more manageable list of contenders.

And the basic premise of this website is to demonstrate this very fact.

It would be remiss not to mention a former colleague during my happy tote days who first inspired me to do this. Although I’ve tried to plough my own unique furrow with a detailed analysis of every Grand National since 2009 to test each trend, I owe much inspiration to his own relentless annual search for the winner which had paid dividends for him and his friends since 1990.

And so on to my record.

Like any good tipster, it’s important you know truthfully how well this annual trend busting has done.

Since 2006, I’ve published an annual email or blog to friends tipping 4-5 horses based on my analysis of Grand National trends.

I’ve tipped 35 horses in all, with the following list finishing in the money…

  • 2006 – 1st & 2nd, Numbersixvalverde & Hedgehunter
  • 2007 – 2nd, McKelvey
  • 2008 – 1st & 3rd, Comply or Die & Snowy Morning
  • 2009 – 4th, State Of Play
  • 2010 – 4th, 5th & 6th, Big Fella Thanks, Hello Bud & Snowy Morning
  • 2011 – 1st & 2nd, Ballabriggs & Oscar Time
  • 2012 – 4th, Cappa Bleu
  • 2013 – 2nd Cappa Bleu, 3rd Teaforthree

So to summarise, that’s 3/8 winners (38% hit rate) and 12/35 horses placed in the first 4 home (35%). I could stretch that number to 13 or even 14 given bookies prevalence for paying out on 5th and even 6th places to tempt you in, which I view as something really well worth doing!

And I draw a considerable amount of pride from always getting at least one horse in the frame to date.

Let’s hope I can keep this level of success going for 2014!

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